According to a recent CNN Poll, Donald Trump leads the GOP candidate field by a comfortable margin heading into next week’s New Hampshire primary.
Donald Trump still has a healthy lead among those likely to vote in the New Hampshire GOP primary. According to the CNN poll, he leads the field with 29% of the support.
The real battle is for second place. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida was polled at 18%, and it appears his strong third-place showing in Iowa may have helped. Ted Cruz at 13% and John Kasich at 12% are right behind. Other than Jeb Bush, at 10%, the CNN poll has all other candidates at single digits. These include Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie.
The CNN Poll was conducted after the results of Monday’s Iowa caucuses. Even though Donald Trump is the apparent candidate to beat, he didn’t win in Iowa. That honor went to Ted Cruz.
The poll shows that roughly 1 in 3 likely Republican primary voters are still not sure who they will vote for when the time comes next week. Of the people who are undecided at this point, not many of them say they would pick Trump. Only 18% say they would choose him.
Following the new Hampshire primary, the focus will switch to Nevada and South Carolina. Rubio grew up in Nevada, which gives him a chance to get a leg up on the other candidates.
If we reach March with some combination of the same top three as was reflected in Iowa—Cruz, Trump, and Rubio—it would not be surprising to see lagging candidates end their run. If hopefuls like Ben Carson, Fiorina, Kasich, and Bush bow out, it will be interesting to see who they would throw their support behind.
Still, it’s probable that most of the remaining candidates will stay in the hunt well into spring. Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum have already pulled out of the race, with Santorum endorsing Rubio.